The following is a brief paper which also appears in a respected academic book edited by Dr Debesh Bhowmik. It is entitled An Approach Towards Central Bank Digital Currency published by Kunal Books, New Delhi, 2022. In Chapter4 the material below is presented. Also, it should be mentioned that a paper published in 2016 entitled Orthodox Monetary Theory: A Critique From Post-Keynesianism and Transfinancial Economics by Dante A. Urbina appears in a book called International Monetary System. Past, Present, and Future Regal Publishing, India. RS
FUTURISTIC ECONOMICS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY?
Robert Searle
The following is in brief concerned with the very basics of an emerging paradigm known as Transfinancial Economics or TFE. It can be seen as a form of Keynesian Economics. Basic to it is the huge relevance of the use of computers and information technology in finance. This would act as a means of notably influencing the economy towards a more ethical, and greener environmentally friendly economy as never before. Many will regard TFE as being similar to Modern Monetary Theory or MMT which has gained a large amount of publicity in recent years. However, the latter is regarded as being a precursor and possible stopgap to TFE which is far more advanced. At the time of writing what follows is still “work in progress”. Of course, it raises many questions which may be answered in the near future such as TFE’s connection with exchange rates and of course the possible emergence of Central Bank Digital Currencies, or CBDCs.
Keywords: Transfinancial Economics, Modern Monetary Theory, Inflation Taxation, Digital Price Controls, Climate Change
JEL Classification Codes: E42,F33,F65,G00,O3,Q54
1. Nationwide Electronic/Digital Price Controls
Essentially, Transfinancial Economics or TFE believes notably that new unearned repayable and non-repayable money can be digitally created ex nihilo and phased into the economy safely without leading to uncontrolled levels of inflation or indeed hyperinflation. This is simply done with the aid of highly flexible electronic digital price controls used for nearly every kind of financial transaction in real time. Thus, if there is a concern about some rise in the prices of certain goods and services these could be digitally capped temporarily. This would be an instantaneous process and could occur automatically in any part of the economy. This could be undertaken with the help of supercomputers or more likely by quantum computers (Clegg, 2021).
Of course, such digital price controls are not the ideal way of doing things but they are better than nothing. Some form of compensation could be created for retailers if desired. However, it must be stressed here that with the right algorithms the market price is allowed to change naturally as much as possible. Whether we like it or not most of the money exists as digital data in a bank. It is used in any number of transaction but “real” money like cash and coin can still be used (unmonitored or possibly monitored in some way) but it would make up only a tiny fraction of the overall economy, and hence, would have near zero significance in our understanding of the whole economy. This is an important but basic point to understand.
Also, in connection notably with vital climate change projects a legally binding agreement should ideally be undertaken to use certain algorithms to track funding. They could detect and instantly ” freeze” in real-time any money that may be involved in fraud.
2. Big Data and Real-Time Economics/The Uncloaking of the “Invisible Hand”.
As one might well realize it would be possible to understand the entire economy in real-time (or near real-time). This colossal accounting data would be created 24/7 with virtually every transaction notably using barcodes, or something similar. The central Inflation Authority would be programmed to instantly check the inflation status of each product or service and if at all necessary instant temporary price capping may occur. Hence, a huge picture of the economy would be possible and could prove invaluable for future economists. Also, such incoming real-time economic indicators would be totally up to date and as such would have no long-time lags unlike conventional economic data.
In spite of this though such information cannot fully rule out uncertainty in the economy. Yet, the data emerging instantaneously should at least give us a far better idea of how it is “working” and this could be important for decision-making. AI or Artificial Intelligence could also play a vital role in all this. Apart from identified transaction data there are what are referred to as Faster Indicators. These use various types of economic activity to be factored in to give us an even wider understanding of the economy in real time (Salina, 2020; Haldane, 2018).
It must be made clear that what we have been saying so far is a capitalist economy. TFE though can also be adapted into a socialist or communist type of economy because it can notably make central planning a lot easier and more likely to succeed unlike conventional economics. Indeed, Economic Cybernetics is an example of this kind of approach, and it is also possible in some future time to have an economy which is “completely” automated and where money is no longer necessary (Cockshott & Cottrell, 1993).
The concepts of TFE are like those proposed by Clifford Douglas and his Social Credit Movement but they have the added dimension of using Big Data and instant digital price capping which did not exist in his time. If he were around today, he would have been impressed by the use of computers, smart phones, plastic cards, et al in developing a futuristic economy. Modern Monetary Theory or MMT is to some extent similar. It should be added too that the term “Social Credit” has nothing to do with the dystopian system of the same name in China (Heydorn, 2014).
Finally in this section of this brief paper it should be said that in time the financial industry will hopefully be powered more and more by sustainable (non-fossil fuel) electricity, and it should be said too that it is possible to have a high degree of commercial confidentiality in connection with the digital transaction data instantaneously going to the Inflation Authority 24/7 for specific businesses of one kind, or another.
3. Maintaining the Value of Money in Real-Time.
TFE would be able to maintain the value of money in real-time at the point of sale (POS). For example, person T buys product A in a shop and its retail price is instantly checked for its inflation status. It is found to be above the inflation rate by 50p and the customer though has already spent this amount but is compensated for it digitally by having it recreated into his or her account. This is called Above Inflation Adjustment. In another instance, person T buys product C which is 30p below the inflation rate and it is the retailer who gets the extra 30p by a digital recreation of it in her or her account. This is called Below Inflation Adjustment. (McDermott,2004).
4. Dynamic Pricing in Real-Time
Fintech is short for Financial Technology. It is a critical part of the TFE paradigm without which it cannot exist. A good example of such financial technology which exists now is Dynamic Pricing. Essentially, it can automatically deal with variable pricing due to changes in supply and demand. It has been successfully utilised in areas such as transportation, hospitality, professional sports, retail, and the like. Even Amazon uses it along with many other companies (Sharda, 2018). All this adds greater credibility to the idea of developing a genuine real-time economy on a national and ultimately international scale. Of course, it has to be realized and remembered that real-time data is used by financial markets around the world in which investors can keep an eye on the value of their shares, or securities. Traders can use such information to make “bets” on the rise and fall of prices of the various companies such as Apple, Google, Unilever, and many other lesser-known ones.
5. TFE and the Climate Change Emergency
At present the greatest challenge facing humanity is the climate change emergency. Tragically, it seems highly likely that it will become irreversible (if it is not already). As such governments, Bigtech companies, and smaller businesses must try if possible to make serious efforts to create credible resilient adaption and mitigation projects on a scale never before known in human history. All this ultimately costs money. Hence, TFE. With this emerging paradigm it would be possible to create new money to fund credible and “feasible” green projects. Of course, investors could be invited to invest venture capital into such investments which could prove lucrative. Such projects may seem in some cases more like “science fiction” but now is the time to think outside the box otherwise we could see the global demise of the human race. It is simple as that. Climate change emergency is not just a physical challenge it is also a spiritual one of the highest order.
Here are a few examples of potential green projects which need to be undertaken (though some of them are in the making or have already been done but not on a scale ultimately necessary for human survival) and they include more solar and wind and solar power facilities; more factory plants and mechanical trees to suck carbon emissions out of the atmosphere; more electric cars; more advances in Nanotechnology in which atomic structures could create new materials in a world of limited resources; possible underground cities and even underground agriculture may be a required to some extent; natural solutions; sun dimming which may be necessary but a controversial move; more flood defences; more recycling centres and so on. At the same time with all this going on the likes of entrepreneurs such as Bezos and Musk can “wisely” continue with the possible colonisation of the moon and even mars (Gates, 2002; Carney, 2021).
6. The Basic Differences between Transfinancial Economics and Modern Monetary Theory
Modern Monetary Theory is at the time of writing been in the public spotlight for several years and has attracted much public attention. It is similar to Transfinancial Economics or TFE. MMT claims that the government is the sole issuer of the national currency and can fund public expenditure and only raises taxation, if necessary, as a means of controlling inflation at some future date. In this respect, TFE is in agreement. Infact, something like MMT already exists. It is called Deficit Spending. This is when governments need more money and can borrow it and (or) create new amounts of it (Kelton, 2020). This of course works but only to a limited extent. Now, the key differences are:
a) TFE uses digital price controls to monitor and if necessary, cap the market price. These would cover the entire economy and not just tiny sections of it. MMT though would use taxation to control inflation instead but may ultimately use price controls.
b) Unlike MMT TFE has a very advanced understanding of the economy via Big Data in real-time whilst the former would probably largely rely on old outdated understanding of economics.
c) As MMT continues to create new money into the economy a point may be reached that too much money will circulate and could lead to not just gradual rises in inflation but to a sudden mass catastrophic state of hyperinflation. With TFE such problems are dealt with directly by digital controls that would instantaneously control the situation at a touch of a button or indeed happen automatically.
d) Since TFE would have a far more accurate comprehension of the economy in real-time it can assess the potential inflation tax liability (possibly as an online sales tax) months or years ahead. On the other hand, MMT could find itself in a situation in which the overall inflation tax liability would be too heavy, and could even cause social unrest. Incidentally, it should be added that a tax rebate is possible in which the inflation taxation paid could be digitally recreated in full, or in part at a future date.
e) Unlike MMT TFE can adjust the value of money if necessary and instantaneously when products and services are bought in real-time at the point of sale (POS). This of course is when the inflation status
is checked by the Inflation Authority. Thus, the purchasing power of money is largely or wholly maintained. This was explained in brief early on using two examples.
f) In MMT the government is seen as the key issuer of currency as something which is non- repayable. However, special private banks could be had in which such grants or (non-governmental) “subsides” could be created digitally.
Key References
[1] Carney, Mark. (2021). Value (s), Building a Better World for All. William Collins.
[2] Clegg, Brian. (2021). Quantum Computing; The Transformative Technology of the Qubit Revolution. Icon
[3] Cockshott, W. Paul., & Cottrell, Allin. (1993). Towards a New Socialism. Spokesman Books.
[4] Gates, William Henry. (2021). How to avoid a Climate Disaster; The Solutions we have and the Breakthroughs. Allen Lane.
[5] Haldane, Andy. (2018, April 30). Mapping the economy in real time is almost within our grasp. Financial Times.https://www.ft.com/content/58190dc2- 4c79-11e8-97e4-13afc 22 d86d4
[6] Heydorn, Oliver. M. (2014). Social Credit Economics. Canada: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform.
[7] Kansas, Salina. (2021, October23). The Real-Time Revolution; How the pandemic reshaped the dismal science. The Economist.https:// www.economist.com/briefing/2021/10/23/enter-third-wave-economics
[8] Kelton, Stephanie. (2020). The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and how to build a Better Economy. John Murray.
[9] McDermott, John. (2004).Economics in Real Time, a Theoretical Reconstruction. The University of Michigan Press.
[10] Sharda, Sahaj. (2018). The Extinction of the Price Tag; How dynamic pricing can save you. New Degree Press.
Some key Points to understand in brief
I. One possible problem with TFE is ofcourse shortages due notably in connection with food security. This is not mentioned in the above paper in detail. This could be alleviated to a large extent with forward thinking and credible planning using special monitored non-repayable money. However, as Climate Change worsens governments will probably be forced to introduce manual price controls but such a measure though would largely be resisted by mainstream economics. Ofcourse, conspiracy theorists would come out of the wood work if and when this happens. Another issue is that highly flexible digital price controls unlike their manual counterparts would be far more efficient (though they could be better termed as inflation controls).But the former could act as a stopgap for the latter if absolutely necessary.
II. Apart from the Central Bank creating new green non-payable money which ofcourse is already happening to some extent new green repayable money can also be created. Special private banks or indeed, existing ones could also be used in part and would have an operating fee as profit instead of charging interest. The source of such funding would come from the Central Bank or some other kind of legal entity.In other words, the private sector could profit greatly via TFE.
III. In the normal state of affairs green goods and services should as time goes by become cheaper and hence more attractive as demand naturally increases from the public. However, this process is already happening somewhat "slowly" but there are marketing stratagies which could artificially alter this situation, and this needs to be developed to create green competition using small or large subsidies. Companies that could loose out at first would be compensated using new captial created ex nihilo. The details of exactly how green artificial "competition" could work out is still being developed in detail at the time of writing.
IV. The originator of TFE is very much aware that Transfinancial Economics would increase emissions. This is unfortunate but hopefully with further funding the way or ways to deal with this problem would be better funded as never before. There are ofcourse a number of so-called carbon capture programmes in the world, but much more needs to be done. Anyway, all this means is that if we have Rapid Green Growth or RGG many people would still die during the Climate Change Crisis. This is tragically unavoidable. But if this were slowly undertaken (as is the case now) it is more probable that the death toll would be much higher in the long run.
V. It is important to understand that when TFE becomes a reality there is no direct or indirect of taxation. The reason is simple. Since money can retain its value in real time it cannot be inflated to a serious degree, and cause devaluation of money. This means ofcourse that more money can be transmitted into the economy safely. All this has notable implications for charities, and NGOs, or governmental organisations as it would mean that raising money from earned sources would no longer be abolutely necessary. This is revolutionary. The only limits ofcourse for this are limited human and natural resources at any point in time.
Originally, the above entry included a lengthy piece on TFE but this is not included here, though it may re-aapear. It maybe found elsewhere probably on The Economics Realms blogspot easily found on the internet. Furthermore, over the years TFE has been circulated around on the internet, and has attracted a number of influential people including Steve Keen, Ellen Brown, Richard Murphy, Hazel Henderson (who was especially keen on TFE), et al.
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