Saturday, 14 November 2015

Empirical macroeconomics — a scientific illusion 3 November, 2015 at 12:53 | Posted in Economics | Lars Sybll/ Blogger Ref    
Theoretical particle physicists wait anxiously to see whether experimentalists will be able to identify the particles their theories postulate. The image of an economic theorist nervously awaiting the result of a decisive econometric test does not ring true. The negligible impact of formal econometric work on the development of economic science is manifest in a number of ways …
burst-your-bubbleIn the natural sciences, investigators rush to check out the validity of claims made by rival laboratories and then to build on them. Such efforts are very rare in economics. I find it implausible that this is a consequence of the accuracy and robustness of the conclusions of econometric studies. Instead, the absence of replication attempts for most empirical work are a consequence of the fact that the results are rarely an important input to theory creation or the evolution of professional opinion more generally.

No comments:

Post a Comment