Tuesday, 21 July 2015

A Possible Solution for the Greek Debt Crisis?




Ref Wikipedia/ Article by Robert Searle




What follows is a brief summary on how the Greek Debt Crisis could be resolved. It is presented as simply as possible, and takes a "moment" to read. Ofcourse, it may not be a brand new idea, but all the same it might still be worth considering. It could at the end of the day  help Greece, and the European Union (EU) to "save face".



The Dual Monetary Plan (DMP) consists of two parts (ie Dual). However, it does not involve a non-state parallel currency per se.




I) The Creation  of Non-Repayable Euros (Direct EURO QE)




Essentially, this is a temporary form of  mainly Direct Quantitative Easing(QE) in which new money is created electronically notably in a limited amount. Simply put,  it is new unearned non-repayable money (as EUROs)  which if produced in sufficient quantity could help the Greeks improve their economy, and pay off  their debts. This unconventional financing could over time be increased depending on the economic growth of Greece, and later phased out altogether when a high level of prosperity is achieved. If serious inflationary pressures appear then taxation, and possibly interest rate rises could be used to reduce the money supply in the Economy.




II) The Continued Creation of Repayable Loans in Euros



As part of the debt conditionality with European Union, the Greeks would still receive repayable loans, but the amounts which require repayment should be easier to pay off with the mainly Direct EURO QE into society, and the economy.



The idea of mainly Direct Quantitative Easing is nothing new. The Green Party suggested such a notion for helping  to create environmental jobs in the UK economy, and elsewhere. However, it is hard to see how Germany would accept such a concept as it is largely  trapped by old thinking  about financing, and banking. But if the DMP were introduced, and if it actually worked it could preserve the EURO in Greece, and keep the country in the EU.




However, The other scenario which may well happen in the future is the introduction of the Drachma,and hence, exit from the EU. Ofcourse, the introduction of any currency in a country requires something akin to Direct QE in which sufficient amounts of non-repayable money could be created for the economy. All countries had to do this in their history. The trick is producing "enough" money to prevent serious inflation, and such estimations are notably based on GDP, and on relevant Inflation Indicators. But the whole thing is not impossible ofcourse, and as mentioned before taxation can act as  a means of taming potential inflation along with interest rate rises, if necessary.




III) Electronic Re-Creation of Non-Paid Loans?



Using Emergency Measures, and certain changes in the Law,  the EU, and possibly the International Monetary Fund could have unpaid "unrepayable" loans re-created electronically, rather than simply "written off", or deleted from their computer databases.  Again, this is unlikely to happen, and can be viewed as a form of Debt Forgiveness. But with the DMP though  it could be possible over many years for the Greeks to repay their Debts possibly "in full" if the Direct EURO QE is used properly along with genuine economic, and political reform.


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In spite of what the author has said in the above, he personally feels that ultimately a Greek Exit from the Euro, and indeed, the European Union would probably be the best solution in the long run.

Ofcourse, Greece is in no way ready to develop something like Transfinancial Economics. See http://www.p2pfoundation.net/Transfinancial_Economics

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