Showing posts with label bill mitchell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bill mitchell. Show all posts

Friday, 24 May 2013

The fundamental principles of modern monetary economics

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- by Bill Mitchell
The following discussion outlines the macroeconomic principles underpinning modern monetary theory (sometimes referred to as Chartalism).
The modern monetary system is characterised by a floating exchange rate (so monetary policy is freed from the need to defend foreign exchange reserves) and the monopoly provision of fiat currency. The monopolist is the national government. Most countries now operate monetary systems that have these characteristics.
Under a fiat currency system, the monetary unit defined by the government has no intrinsic worth. It cannot be legally converted by government, for example, into gold as it was under the gold standard. The viability of the fiat currency is ensured by the fact that it is the only unit which is acceptable for payment of taxes and other financial demands of the government.
The analogy that mainstream macroeconomics draws between private household budgets and the national government budget is thus false. Households, the users of the currency, must finance their spending prior to the fact. However, government, as the issuer of the currency, must spend first (credit private bank accounts) before it can subsequently tax (debit private accounts). Government spending is the source of the funds the private sector requires to pay its taxes and to net save and is not inherently revenue constrained.
So statements such as “the federal government is spending taxpayers’ funds” are totally inapplicable to operational reality of our monetary system. Taxation acts to withdraw spending power from the private sector but does not provide any extra financial capacity for public spending. As a matter of national accounting, the federal government deficit (surplus) equals the non-government surplus (deficit). In aggregate, there can be no net savings of financial assets of the non-government sector without cumulative government deficit spending. The federal government via net spending (deficits) is the only entity that can provide the non-government sector with net financial assets (net savings) and thereby simultaneously accommodate any net desire to save and hence eliminate unemployment. Additionally, and contrary to mainstream economic rhetoric, the systematic pursuit of government budget surpluses is necessarily manifested as systematic declines in private sector savings.
We often read that the appropriate fiscal stance is to balance the federal budget over the business cycle. Some economists claim the goals should be to run a surplus on average over the cycle allowing for deficits in extreme downturns.
Both goals would be fiscally irresponsible in Australia’s situation where our current account is typically in deficit. If the government balanced the budget on average and the current account deficit was in deficit over the business cycle then the private domestic sector would on average be in deficit (dis-saving) over that cycle. The decreasing levels of net private savings financing the government surplus increasingly leverage the private sector. The deteriorating debt to income ratios which result will eventually see the system succumb to ongoing demand-draining fiscal drag through a slow-down in real activity. In other words, adopting a growth strategy that relies on increasingly leveraging the private sector is unsustainable.
The only way the private domestic sector can save if there is a current account deficit is for the government sector to run deficits up to the desired private saving. Government deficits “finance” private saving by ensuring that aggregate spending is sufficient to generate the level of output and income that will bring forth the private desired saving levels.
Unemployment occurs when net government spending is too low. As a matter of accounting, for aggregate output to be sold, total spending must equal total income (whether actual income generated in production is fully spent or not each period). Involuntary unemployment is idle labour unable to find a buyer at the current money wage. In the absence of government spending, unemployment arises when the private sector, in aggregate, desires to spend less of the monetary unit of account than it earns. Nominal (or real) wage cuts per se do not clear the labour market, unless they somehow eliminate the private sector desire to net save and increase spending. Thus, unemployment occurs when net government spending is too low to accommodate the need to pay taxes and the desire to net save.
How large should the deficit be? To achieve full employment net government spending has to be equal to the non-government desire to net save to ensure there is no aggregate demand gap.
Unlike the mainstream rhetoric, insolvency is never an issue with deficits. The only danger with fiscal policy is inflation which would arise if the government pushed nominal spending growth above the real capacity of the economy to absorb it.
If governments are not revenue constrained why do they borrow? We have to differentiate voluntary constraints governments impose on themselves (which reflect ideological dispositions) from the underlying mechanics of the banking system in a fiat monetary system.
In terms of the latter, while the federal government is not financially constrained it still might issue debt to control its liquidity impacts on the private sector. Government spending and purchases of government bonds by the central bank add liquidity, while taxation and sales of government securities drain private liquidity. These transactions influence the cash position of the system on a daily basis and on any one day they can result in a system surplus (deficit) due to the outflow of funds from the official sector being above (below) the funds inflow to the official sector. The system cash position has crucial implications for the central bank, which targets the level of short-term interest rates as its monetary policy position.
Budget deficits result in system-wide surpluses (excess bank reserves). Competition between the commercial banks to create better earning opportunities on the surplus reserves then puts downward pressure on the cash rate (as they try to off-load the excess reserves in the overnight interbank market). So budget deficits actually put downward pressure on short-term interest rates which is contrary to all the claims made by mainstream economics.
If the central bank desires to maintain the current positive target cash rate then it must drain this surplus liquidity by selling government debt. In other words, government debt functions as interest rate support via the maintenance of desired reserve levels in the commercial banking system and not as a source of funds to finance government spending.
However, the central bank could equally just pay the commercial banks the target rate of interest on all overnight reserves which would achieve the same end without the need to issue debt. So there is no intrinsic reason for a sovereign government to borrow to “finance” its net spending.
The reality is, however, that the neo-liberal era has forced the governments to adopt voluntary constraints on its fiscal activity which are tantamount to those that operated during the gold standard period. So the federal government now issues debt to the private markets via an auction system $-for-$ with net government spending (deficits). This allegedly imposes “fiscal discipline” on the government (it is totally unnecessary from a financial perspective) because the rising debt becomes a political issue.
In conclusion, much of the deficit-debt hysteria that defines the current macroeconomic debate is based on false premises about the way the monetary system operates and the financial constraints on government spending.
Modern monetary theory provides a sound basis for understanding the intrinsic opportunities available to governments in a fiat monetary system and exposes most of the constraints that are imposed on the conduct of fiscal policy as being of an ideological origin.
This text was originally published on Bill Mitchell's blog: In the Spirit of Debate, and is republished here with the author's permission.


Thursday, 11 April 2013

Modern Monetary Theory on the P2P Foundation.

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= MMT is a description of the monetary system within a nation operating a fiat currency which involves an autonomous monetary system, monopoly supply of currency and floating exchange rates. MMT describes how a government creates, destroys and utilizes its monetary unit and also how the private sector utilizes the state’s monetary unit for its own benefit. [1]


Contents

 [hide

Definition

"Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is based on the following principles:
  • The Federal government is the monopoly supplier of currency.


  • The modern floating exchange rate system helps to maintain equilibrium and flexibility in the global economy.


  • The currency unit created by the state via deficit spending can only be extinguished by payment of taxes. Therefore, a modern monetary system can best be thought of as a system of debits and credits where government deficit spending credits the private sector and payment of taxes debits the private sector."
(http://pragcap.com/resources/understanding-modern-monetary-system)
See also: Functional Finance


Description

Source

* Article: Understanding Modern Monetary Theory. Tadit Anderson.
URL = http://economics.arawakcity.org/node/674 ;
Based upon a review by Tadit Anderson of Understanding Modern Money by L. Randal Wray

1

Tadit Anderson:
"The purpose for this set of two flyers is to describe what can be done when a sovereign nation restores its ability to issue fiat debt free money. A very important point to remember here is that the US already has a fiat based currency. "Fiat," as a word means "by declaration." The odd pieces are that although the U.S. has had a fiat currency since 1971 and the banking management practices reflects that fact, the conduct of fiscal policies continues to assume that we are still operating with a gold based currency and that we have to borrow our money into existence.
Monetary reform is an important agenda for ethical, economic, and political reasons and to undo the privatized franchise by which our economy has been based upon a debt based currency. Ending the enormous unearned profits acquired by the means of the privatization of our sovereign currency is important The resistance to monetary and fiscal reform is based upon the fear of established interests of losing both the private control that the monetary franchise allows and the enormous profits that result from that private control. The primary policy conclusion that comes out of this analysis is perhaps shocking, but it can be stated simply: It is possible to have truly full employment without causing inflation."
A number of concepts that are important in the current economic debate. When these ideas are looked at from the perspective of modern monetary theory and functional finance, they take on implications different from the privatized and gold era perspective. The list of concepts includes government deficits, the value of the currency, monetary policy, government bond sales, employment policy, exogenous pricing versus endogenous pricing, the tax liability validation of fiat currency, and using employer of last resort labor as a valuation buffer. This process further presents a series of definitions including "state money," "commodity money," "fiat money," "bank money," "the monetary unit of account," and "full employment."
The nature of the of money that circulates within a sovereign economy makes a major difference in how monetary and fiscal policies are structured. The conventional concept of money includes the assumption that money is based upon the value of precious metals and thereby there is an intrinsic scarcity. Because the need for currency often surpasses the availability of that currency, on a one for one basis, there are certain ways that the apparent amount of money in circulation can exceed the actual amount precious metal available. The actual value of modern money is determined by that which is accepted in the payment of taxes by the sovereign government. The second characteristic of money is under a fiat system which is useful is that it is used as a unit of accounting.
Under the specie convention and different regulatory standards specie based currency can be leveraged. The k through 12 version will allow nine dollars of debt based money to issued for every one dollar held on deposit. The amount of money or specie held in reserve is described as the reserves for whatever type of money or bond are issued Under certain extreme and even questionable situations the leveraging ratio can be as much as 1 "real" Dollar to 70 dollars or more of leveraged, ie fictional money.
Under the specie era model it is assumed that the rate of debt being created is more that the amount of funds being deposited and then used as reserves. Under the same specie era model the institutions of central governance are assumed to operate similar to how an ordinary household would sustain. Funding of programs and projects are then believed to happen by a process of either collecting taxes and/or borrowing money from privately held banks. before programs and projects are funded. Under the simple version of this specie model when an individual or a government borrows money from a bank the amount that is paid back over time is actually the principle and the interest. The principle was fictional debt based money that was leveraged into service. The interest percentage, however it is calculated, only represents a small portion of the short term profit for the bank. As a loan's interest is compounded over time, the original principle will dwindle as the interest rate adds to the running principle.
A related piece is that mortgages do not represent loans from banks or mortgage companies. It is your signature on the mortgage contract which makes a mortgage contract valuable. Under a fiat and debt based currency, money is put into circulation largely by making a ledger entry into a loanee's account. This is partly possible because a majority of our "currency" in circulation is actually neither paper currency or coinage. Under a fiat system currency cannot not be directly converted into precious metal anymore than buying it at the current market value which as a commodity it value is determined by supply and demand.
Another detail is that the banking reserve process does not operate according to the fractional reserve principles as defined that was used while specie and debt monetary model operated. The scarcity of gold has in a sense been replaced by a scarcity of loan applications that are judged to be a profitable risk. What actually happens under a privately controlled monetary system is that a loan application is reviewed based upon whether it represented an good opportunity for a banking investment on some basis. and then after approving the loan the bank borrows funds from the central bank, in the case of the US it is the US Federal Reserve, to cover the reserve requirements. Because the US Federal Reserve is now operating under a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). this money is being put into circulation on a even higher net leverage ratio. The ZIRP is a significant side issue in this context, because the central bank has no requirement.
Given that the US congress voted in 1913 to both set up the US Federal Reserve and turn over the issuance and management of the economy in large part to the privately owned corporation the US Federal Reserve, this decision could in principle be reversed as being un-Constitutional, which it is. The problem is that these finance sector corporations by having the power to create fiat money on their own authority their corporate "free speech" is potentially endless as contributions to the political campaign funds, and thereby their influence upon politicians will always be greater than the free speech of natural citizens, until this franchise is removed.
Taxation at the federal level within the principles of fiat sovereign currency is largely a method of controlling the excess accumulation of wealth. When taxes are collected by the U.S. I.R.S. those amounts are simply deleted from the tax payer's accounts. Again, under the specie based currency, those taxes were held and then disbursed for Federal government programs and projects. And again, to remind you, we do not currently have a specie based currency, so it ends up being fairly ignorant to continue imagine that the current fiat currency serves in the same way a specie based currency. So the deficit terrorism threatening austerity and even deeper privatization is based upon a specie era monetary model, and is thereby false and clearly a fear tactic based upon disinformation.
Because we could be operating under a sovereignty based version of fiat currency, we could have the government act in a counter cyclical way to increase the demand for goods and economic exchanges by putting currency into circulation through the funding of projects and programs directly. Part of the problems of debt based money is the enormous profits being made off of a social institution to facilitate exchange. Another is that the expansion of currency in circulation is that debt based money is erased from people's accounts once the loans are either paid off or defaulted on. Debt based currency is not designed to serve in a relatively permanent fashion to maintain the illusion of scarcity.
Based on understanding how sovereign fiat money actually is used would allow the Federal government to extend funding to states on a per capita basis for the construction of roads, mass transit, bridges and other "hard" infrastructure to put people back to work which would increase demand for products. This same process can be applied to social infrastructure such as national health care, education, and pensions. Further, an employer of last resort (ELR) process could be established, whereby individuals who wanted to work could be provided a living wage for advancing any number of needed projects toward building communities. This would remove the expense of funding most unemployment benefits and most social welfare. This would also support the cultivation of a work ethic and of being involved in some sort of productive process. This could also be used to incubate new industries until that establish a virtuous process of productivity and trade.
The ELR process would also have other benefits. At the level of economic models labor would no longer be treated as a commodity without any connection to the consumer demand represented by labor as participants in an economic process. As productive industry is able to re-establish itself, the need for ELR labor will diminish greatly, and people can be hired into expanding productive activities.
Banking would be largely reduced to a social utility, where it could actually participate in the development of productive industries, rather than basing its profits on the degree to which wealth could be extracted from a community.
When we align the nature of our economics and the capacities of modern money with the policies of governance as a socializing agenda significant changes will be possible. This change will require reform and education on several levels. In effect the precious metal era economics tends to be structured to serve concentrations of private interests, particularly as in the cynical version of the "golden rule," which is "those who have the gold make the rules." One of the major contradictions of conventional economics is that the actual banking and monetary processes operate much closer to a chartalist view of money than to precious metal centered assumptions. This includes the leveraging allowed by way of the legitimization of the fractional reserve process which in other contexts would be described as a fraud." (http://economics.arawakcity.org/node/674)


2.

Tadit Anderson:
"Decisive in the process is that the state also defines the currency accepted by the state as payment in which taxation levies must be paid. The exchanges between private individuals is less important though significant in the taxation of those transactions, and as legal tender. This establishes a ranking of convertibility that places the currency in which payment of taxation is accepted as the highest form. Knapp's concept of money is what the sovereign concept of money evolved toward nearly seventy five years after the publication of Knapp's theory. Knapp also recognized the probable difficulties of trade between sovereign nations.
It is the state that determines what thing or token will be accepted in the payment of taxes or as currency. State money is identified as taking three forms, commodity(usually specie based), fiat money, and managed money, the last two also combine as representative money. Depending upon the state enfranchisement of centralized and member banks, state money, bonds, and securities would be used as the basis for held reserves. "In summary, with the rise of the modern state, the money of account is chosen by the state, which is free to choose that which will qualify as money ('the thing' that answers to the description). This supersedes legal tender laws -- which establish what can legally discharge contracts -- to define that which the state accepts in payment for taxes at its pay 'offices.'
The state is free to choose a system based upon commodity money, fiat money, or managed money. Even if it chooses a strict commodity system, the value of the money does not derive from the commodity accepted as money. '[f]or Chartalism begins when the state designates the objective standard which shall correspond to the money of account.' ... '[M]oney is the measure of value, but to regard it as having value itself is a relic of the view that that the value of money is regulated by the value of the substance of which ut is made, and is like confusing a theater ticket with the performance' (from John Maynard Keynes )
The endogenous approach to money supply is characterized by two elements, first, that the supply of money expands to meet the demand for money, and second that the central bank exercises no direct or discretionary control over the quantity of money. It is only in the twentieth century that the majority of economists came to accept the "exogenous" view of money creation and that the central bank can directly control the quantity of money and can be assumed to be fixed so that it does not respond to demand.
Hyman Minsky presents a successive nesting process of bank monies which rely on the primacy of state money. The emphasis of both Minsky and then Lerner are presented as focusing on how in a normally, well-working economy money is actually exchanged and tied to their acceptability by the state. The emphasis here is upon the functional nature of money, monetary policy, fiscal policy, taxation, and banking.
An interesting piece of actual history is a comparison of the opposing monetary and fiscal policies of the Union as compared to the Conferation of southern states during the US Civil war. This comes by way of an analysis done by Abba Lerner. In short the results of that conflict seemed to have been more determined by the functional versus dysfunctional natures of the widely different monetary and fiscal policies than even the military strategies resulting in massive casualties. This bit of history establishes the validity of fiat currency, the "Greenback," by the Union both during the US Civil war, then upto 1869, and then from 1884 forward.
It is necessary to compare "conventional" wisdom regarding these issues to the examination of these utilities as they are used which turns conventional wisdom upside down. Abba Lerner approached these processes according to their actual effects, and it makes for a startling different view of the general processes. He does make a distinction between "fiat money" and "bank money." Fiat money as only being issued through spending by the government. Bank money as being issued by banks as a product of a contract of indebtedness to a bank. This is generally described elsewhere as debt based money. Fiat money in this context would be debt free money issued by a sovereign government.
Being that bank money is created upon the prospect of profitability, and then any necessary reserves are acquired after the fact. This clearly establishes an unstable process relative to the amount of which money is in circulation. To the extent that fiat money is spent into circulation to greater or lesser effect relative to the scarcity of currency within a community. To the extent that the leverage process would be abused both to put bank money into circulation and remove both it and the interest upon payment. It seems that the influence of Hyman Minsky's observations of the destabilization of an economy enters out of the innovation of unregulated financial instruments and from the deregulation of familiar instruments. In this context there should be a question regarding limiting the creation of bank money both by using fiat money to establish a general lack of currency scarcity and by regulation of the banking leverage ratios. The mechanism by which the amount of private savings that might be held, also effects the availability of credit. It seems that the deregulation of banking industry generally has favored the profitability of bank money over fiat money at the expense of the general population.
Much of what Lerner demonstrated came out of the financing and pricing of commodities and labor by the US government during World War II, and those economic lessons were soon dismissed. Another portion came from the interrelating of the financial spread sheets of the US Treasury and the US Federal Reserve. All this was supplemented by Lerner's study of the fiscal and monetary policies of both the Union and Confederate governments during the US Civil War. I think that generally it has been amply demonstrated that Minsky was entirely correct that economic stability cultivates economic instability. By extension it is probable that Lerner was also right about the capacities under the insights of functional finance.
Economic illiteracy by multiple sources and the profitability of bank money obstruct change to a more functional basis. The obstructions to functional fiscal and monetary policies relative the benefits to the general population are primarily political. A similar analysis can demonstrate the inadequacy of monetary policies and how the banking actually operates as an institution.
The logic of the employer of last resort processes as proposed by both Minsky and Lerner. In this context there is a huge positive potential in stabilizing both retail prices and wages in a down cycle period and to avoid the multiple negative effects of using unemployment as a weapon against unionization and the expectation of higher wages according to productivity. The core suggestions are revolutionary, in the sense of the over-turning of long held assumptions. I have difficulty believing that these "conventions" were sustained solely out of ignorance, but more likely as a form of oligarchic dysfunctional finance.
The premise that labor should be a participant within an economy both as a producer and as a consumer, shifts the processes of economy from being privatized to being a fully public process. Counter cyclical employer of last resort paid on the basis of a living wage not based upon the errant piece of usury referred to as the Federal minimum wage. Because the nominal Federal minimum wage is substantially below the actual cost of a living wage, it represents a form of subsidy by the work force. The idea that in a down cycle period people might be productive in service to the community, rather than sustaining both a culture of idleness and idle profit is also revolutionary. Further, using the living wage as a basis of valuation of the currency is another major innovation and a humanization of economic processes.
Reserve requirements might be treated as an additional option for control. He doe not explore this possibility with any sense of completeness. Given that the established privatization of debt based currency and the lack of an integrated control over the creation of debt based bank money, the current system permits multiple drivers. The use of reserves to leverage the production of debt based money needs to be integrated as part of a fully coherent set of macro-economic policies in service of the public interest. A full reserve structure for all bank lending is the necessary solution. Under the condition of an adequate distribution of sovereign fiat money, debt based money would be not be necessary. Lerner's single driver metaphor can also be taken in the opposite direction toward the corporate takeover of the process of governance. This choice also offers a "single" driver for the most part, but it is exactly what we have now in the control of governance by corporations and particularly by the "finance" sector. This option is obviously hazardous because this particular driver is blind to every issue other than its own return on investment. It is also an extremely unproductive use of capital relative to the entire economy. It serves a fictional function other than acting as a wealth extraction process. Relying on a privatized central banking process to control hazardous driving by the application of monetary policy changes has been inadequate to limit primitive accumulation. Perhaps we can recognize this pattern by its current enactment in real time on a global scale.
Most of the changes necessary to making the economic processes functional require no specific reform, just changes in the way policy makers understand the capacity of the system they already have. The one large piece that is missing is an advocacy for the restoration of monetary sovereignty that was yielded in the establishment of the US Federal Reserve specifically to greatly eliminate the private franchise to create debt based money and to bring the control of central banking under the authority of the U.S. Treasury. The US Government must restore its ability to issue fiat and debt free money before Functional Finance can be made operational. In addition the deregulation banking and speculation must be restored and improved upon. Using Lerner's wisdom, going for a macro-economic drive requires that a coherent set of public policies be established to take control of the steering wheel and accompanied by knowing how the mechanism actually works and interacts with its environment. We will not have a coherent public agenda controlling the economy until the power to issue fiat and debt free money is restored to serve the public interest." (http://economics.arawakcity.org/node/675)


History

1.
"MMT is based on the state theory of money which says that modern fiat money is always a “creature of the state”. The theory was first introduced by GF Knapp as “Chartalism”. This is derived from the Latin word “charta” which means token. This is used to describe the reality of modern fiat currencies as nothing more than a state issued token with no linkage to commodity based money. We do not reside in a system in which currencies have any linkage to metals therefore, such thinking is not applicable to a modern fiat monetary system, although such thinking has persisted and still clouds much economic thinking to this day.
Significant contributions to Chartalism were made by Alfred Mitchell-Innes and Abba Lerner. The gold standard, however, rendered much of their work incomplete as governments were still constrained in their ability to issue currency. This changed in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window. Since then, Chartalism has undergone a significant revival although much of the economic thinking based on the gold standard continues to this day. The work of Hyman Minsky, Wynne Godley, Warren Mosler and Randall Wray have been particularly central to this revival that has come to be known as “Neo-Chartalism” or Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)." (http://pragcap.com/resources/understanding-modern-monetary-system) link title

2.
Dylan Matthews:
“Modern Monetary Theory” was coined by Bill Mitchell, an Australian economist and prominent proponent, but its roots are much older. The term is a reference to John Maynard Keynes, the founder of modern macroeconomics. In “A Treatise on Money,” Keynes asserted that “all modern States” have had the ability to decide what is money and what is not for at least 4,000 years.
This claim, that money is a “creature of the state,” is central to the theory. In a “fiat money” system like the one in place in the United States, all money is ultimately created by the government, which prints it and puts it into circulation. Consequently, the thinking goes, the government can never run out of money. It can always make more.
This doesn’t mean that taxes are unnecessary. Taxes, in fact, are key to making the whole system work. The need to pay taxes compels people to use the currency printed by the government. Taxes are also sometimes necessary to prevent the economy from overheating. If consumer demand outpaces the supply of available goods, prices will jump, resulting in inflation (where prices rise even as buying power falls). In this case, taxes can tamp down spending and keep prices low.
But if the theory is correct, there is no reason the amount of money the government takes in needs to match up with the amount it spends. Indeed, its followers call for massive tax cuts and deficit spending during recessions. Warren Mosler — a hedge fund manager, sports car company owner and frequent gadfly political candidate (he earned a little less than 1 percent of the vote as an independent in Connecticut’s 2010 Senate race) — is among the movement’s more prolific authors. He says that to combat the current downturn he supports suspending the payroll tax that finances the Social Security trust fund, and providing an $8 an hour government job to anyone who wants one.
The theory’s followers come mainly from a couple of institutions: the University of Missouri-Kansas City’s economics department and the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, both of which have received money from Mosler. But the movement is gaining followers quickly, largely through an explosion of economics blogs. Naked Capitalism, an irreverent and passionately written blog on finance and economics with nearly a million monthly readers, features proponents such as Kelton, fellow Missouri professor L. Randall Wray and Wartberg College professor Scott Fullwiler. So does New Deal 2.0, a wonky economics blog based at the liberal Roosevelt Institute think tank." (https://apps.facebook.com/wpsocialreader/me/channels/read/content/kHoQP?)

Discussion

MMT on Monetary Policies as a Managed Commons

Tadit Anderson:
"In a "translation" of an essay by Dan Kervick that was entitled "Occupy the Fiscal Debate" I have been substantially editing it to be used as a set of my trifolds. The value of the article is that it is a fairly compact description of how sovereign fiat currencies operate on a managed commons basis. The appended version of "functionality" by way of "functional finance" is directed to serving the common purpose, and it is intended as an integral concern of MMT/FF. It generally does not address other aspects or levels of the Commons, which I will be adding as policy options on a sub sovereign basis, such as regional, state/province, or municipal basis for policy options congruent with the commons concept in fiscal debates. I am am inserting to extend the commons basis to integrating "subsidies" and "depletion allowances" as net negative contributions to the sovereign or national net contribution. Thereafter annexing water, mineral resources, the atmosphere, and other more typical commons elements is a short step. There is a difference between taxing the use of commons resources as a principle and defining a more specific value to the use of commons domains in quantifying net negative consumption of various commons domains.
I hope that this responds to your question. In short, in principle I believe that the concern about the commons is already implied though not yet explicitly addressed within the MMT/FF framing. To the level of peer to peer applications of the commons principle it seems like short step into embedding the commons principle into legal language for contracts and regulator functions. This is currently not the case as per the patenting of genomes and similar capturing of what is essentially a commons domain." (email, December 2012)


Can MMT save Europe from Austerity?

The Economy doesn't Need to suffer Neoliberal Austerity!
By Michael Hudson [2]

"I have just returned from Rimini, Italy, where I experienced one of the most amazing spectacles of my academic life. Four of us associated with the University of Missouri at Kansas City (UMKC) were invited to lecture for three days on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and explain why Europe is in such monetary trouble today -- and to show that there is an alternative, that the enforced austerity for the 99% and vast wealth grab by the 1% is not a force of nature.
Stephanie Kelton (incoming UMKC Economics Dept. chair and editor of its economic blog, New Economic Perspectives [3]), criminologist and law professor Bill Black, investment banker Marshall Auerback and myself (along with a French economist, Alain Parquez) stepped into the basketball auditorium on Friday night. We walked down, and down, and further down the central aisle, past a packed audience reported as over 2,100. It was like entering the Oscars as People called out our first names. Some told us they had read all of our economics blogs. Stephanie joked that now she knew how The Beatles felt. There was prolonged applause -- all for an intellectual rather than a physical sporting event.
With one difference, of course: Our adversaries were not there. There was much press, but the prevailing Euro-technocrats (the bank lobbyists who determine European economic policy) hoped that the less discussion of possible alternatives to austerity, the easier it would be to force their brutal financial grab through.
All the audience members had contributed to raise the funds to fly us over from the United States (and from France for Alain), and treat us to Federico Fellini's Grand Hotel on the Rimini beach. The conference was organized by reporter Paolo Barnard, who had studied MMT with Randall Wray and realized that there was plenty of demand in Italian mass culture for a discussion of what actually was determining the living conditions of Europe -- and the emerging financial elite that hopes to use this crisis as an opportunity to become the new financial lords carving out fiefdoms by privatizing the public domain being sold off by governments that have no central bank to finance their deficits, and are tragically beholden to bondholders and to Eurocrats drawn from the neoliberal camp.
Paolo and his enormous support staff of translators and interns provided an opportunity to hear an approach to monetary and tax theory and policy that until recently was almost unheard of in the United States. Just one week earlier the Washington Post published a review of MMT [4], followed by a long discussion in the Financial Times [5].
But the theory remains grounded primarily at the UMKC's economics department and the Levy Institute at Bard College, with which most of us are associated.
The basic thrust of our argument is that just as commercial banks create credit electronically on their computer keyboards (creating a bank account credit for borrowers in exchange for their signing an IOU at interest), governments can create money. There is no need to borrow from banks, as computer keyboards provide nearly free credit creation to finance spending.
The difference, of course, is that governments spend money (at least in principle) to promote long-term growth and employment, to invest in public infrastructure, research and development, provide health care and other basic economic functions. Banks have a more short-term time frame. They lend credit against collateral in place. Some 80% of bank loans are mortgages against real estate. Other loans are made to finance leveraged buyouts and corporate takeovers. But most new fixed capital investment by corporations is financed out of retained earnings.
Unfortunately, the flow of earnings is now being diverted increasingly to the financial sector -- not only to pay interest and penalties to banks, but for stock buybacks intended to support stock prices and hence the value of stock options that managers of today's financialized companies give themselves. As for the stock market -- which textbook diagrams still depict as raising money for new capital investment -- it has been turned into a vehicle to buy out companies on credit (e.g., with high interest junk bonds) and replace equity with debt. Inasmuch as interest payments are tax-deductible, as if they were a necessary cost of doing business, corporate income-tax payments lowered. And what the tax collector relinquishes is available to be paid out to the bankers and bondholders who get rich by loading the economy down with debt.
Welcome to the post-industrial economy, financialized style. Industrial capitalism has passed into a series of stages of finance capitalism,
from the Bubble Economy to the Negative Equity stage, foreclosure time,
debt deflation, austerity -- and what looks like debt peonage in Europe, above all for the PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. (The Baltic countries of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania already have been plunged so deeply into debt that their populations are emigrating to find work and flee debt-burdened real estate. The same has plagued Iceland since its bank rip-offs collapsed in 2008.)
Why aren't economists describing this phenomenon? The answer is a combination of political ideology and analytic blinders. As soon as the Rimini conference ended on Sunday evening, for instance, Paul Krugman's Monday, February 27 New York Times column, What Ails Europe? <http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/27/opinion/krugman-what-ails-europe.html?hp> blamed the euro's problems simply on the inability of countries to devalue their currencies. He rightly criticized the Republican party line that blames European welfare spending for the Eurozone's problems, and also criticizing putting the blame on budget deficits.
But he left out of account the straitjacket of the European Central Bank (ECB) unable to monetize the deficits, as a result of junk economics written into the EU constitution.
- "If the peripheral nations still had their own currencies, they could and would use devaluation to quickly restore competitiveness. But they don't, which means that they are in for a long period of mass unemployment and slow, grinding deflation. Their debt crises are mainly a byproduct of this sad prospect, because depressed economies lead to budget deficits and deflation magnifies the burden of debt."
Depreciation would lower the price of labor while raising the price of imports. The burden of debts denominated in foreign currencies would increase in keeping with the devaluation, thereby creating problems unless the government passed a law re-denominating all debts in domestic currency. This would satisfy the Prime Directive of international financing: always denominated debts in your own currency, as the United States does.
In 1933, Franklin Roosevelt nullified the Gold Clause in U.S. loan contracts, enabling banks and other creditors to be paid in the equivalent gold value.

But in his usual neoclassical fashion, Mr. Krugman ignores the debt issue:
- "The afflicted nations, in particular, have nothing but bad choices: either they suffer the pains of deflation or they take the drastic step of leaving the euro, which won't be politically feasible until or unless all else fails (a point Greece seems to be approaching). Germany could help by reversing its own austerity policies and accepting higher inflation, but it won't."
But leaving the euro is not sufficient to avert austerity, foreclosure and debt deflation if the nation that withdraws retains the neoliberal policy that plagues the euro. Suppose the post-euro economy has a central bank that still refuses to finance public budget deficits, forcing the government to borrow from commercial banks and bondholders? Suppose the government believes that it should balance the budget rather than provide the economy with spending power to increase its growth?'
Suppose the government slashes public welfare spending, or bails out banks for their losses, or takes losing bank gambles onto the public balance sheet, as Ireland has done? Or for that matter, what if the governments do not write down real estate mortgages and other debts to the debtors' ability to pay, as Iceland has failed to do? The result will still be debt deflation, forfeiture of property, unemployment -- and a rising tide of emigration as the domestic economy and employment opportunities shrink.
So what then is the key? It is to have a central bank that does what central banks were founded to do: monetize government budget deficits so as to spend money into the economy, in a way best intended to promote economic growth and full employment.
This was the MMT message that the five of us were invited to explain to the audience in Rimini. Some attendees came up and explained that they had come all the way from Spain, others from France and cities across Italy. And although we did many press, radio and TV interviews, we were told that the major media were directed to ignore us as not politically correct.
Such is the censorial spirit of neoliberal monetary austerity. Its motto is TINA: There Is No Alternative, and it wants to keep matters this way. As long as it can suppress discussion of how many better alternatives there are, the hope is that the public will remain acquiescent as their living standards shrink and wealth is sucked up to the top of the economic pyramid to the 1%.
The audience requested above all more theory from Stephanie Kelton, who gave the clearest lecture on economics I had ever heard -- a Euclidean presentation of MMT logic. For a visual of the magnitude, see Stephanie here. <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XP60tpwu5cs>
The size of the audience filling the sports stadium to hear our economic explanation of how a real central bank should operate to avoid austerity and promote rather than discourage employment showed that the government's attempt to brainwash the population was not working. It was not working any better than Harvard's Economics 101 class, from which students walked out in protest against the unrealistic parallel universe thinking whose only appeal is to highly intelligent but ungrounded individuals (not yet post-autistic). They are selected as useful idiots and trained to draw pictures of the economy that exclude analysis of the debt overhead, rentier free lunches and financial parasitism. One needs to be very clever, after all, to imagine a system that "saves the appearances" of an unrealistic Ptolemaic system."


Overview of Critiques

Robert Searle:
"The following could be listed in connection with MMT.

1. Mainstream economists would regard the idea that new non-repayable money could be created by governments (ie MMT)thereby replacing tax would be seen as being "too inflationary."

Tadit: this is essentially a red herring. The problem with sovereign economies is exactly because of of the assumptions that define neo-classical economics. Based upon this fact being concerned about supposed criticisms neo-classical economists seems like a non-issue. Main stream economists should be more concerned about the unsustainability of neo-classical economics, than attempting to discredit an economic discourse which is based upon actual practices, ie MMT/FF

2. The concept from the US point of view that governments should create their own money sans taxation (except for controlling inflationary pressures where, and when necessary) would be seen as giving elected representatives "too much power!"
Tadit: this statement is more about dysfunction economics and the political interests that the neo-classical model serves. MMT/FF is reality based and at best neo-classical economics is faith based and little more. Actually any casual reader who looks into where those representatives advocates receive their funding, their actual loyalties should be clear and not supportive of governance as an element of the political commons.It will be very clear that allowing private banking interests to issue money as debt and as digital entries has demonstrated that the privatized franchise to create "money" results in their control of who gets loans and capitalization, who does not receive capitalization, and which politicians are bribed and those whose priorities are primarily aligned with private banking interests, and those corporations which they serve have the far greater influence upon policy issuance and thereby political power of blood and flesh citizens.

3. The most obvious obstacle to MMT is of course the Global Bond Market which would resist any attempt to reduce, or irradicate its power." (p2p-f mailing list, October 2011)
Tadit: this is patently silly, the global bond market traders if they are even modestly educated will understand that money is the means by which wealth is transferred. Certainly the finance centered banks with object the application of MMT/FF because any monetary reform which result in less profit going to those banking interests will be resisted at great effort. Those investor would speculate in currency futures generally already understand how monetary economics works. Those that hold the privatized franchaise to issue sovereign currency will never willingly give up that privilege willingly. This no reason at to surrender the need for massive reform to that process in favor of the sovereign economic commons with the expectation that the currency process be managed in the interest of democratic outcomes and effects..
If you still believe that neo-classical economics is the only legitimate economic model and you are not a private sector banker, then you need to do a considerable amount of homework before maybe you will eventually realize that your education has been seriously deficient. If you are modestly intelligent, and are interested in learning about an economic model and the monetary reform which is reality based, then MMT/FF likely to be a useful alternative. For those who have degrees in economics and are committed to neo-classical economics, then perhaps you need to think about demanding a return on your tuition payments.

Difference with Functional Finance

Tadit Anderson:
"The difference is more a matter of history and focus, because generally speaking they are integrated. MMT is derived from J. M. Keynes's later work related to money as an institution and as related to his advocacy of macro-economics. Functional Finance is based upon work of Abba Lerner (the New School for Social research through the 1960s and 1970s plus) others. It is based upon the experience with deficit based government spending during the "Great Depression/FDR's New Deal and into the transition after US Pres Nixon "closed" the Gold "window" on the redemption of US Dollars into gold in 1971. It is functional in the sense of how monetary and fiscal policy works relative to its outcomes. MMT includes substantial historical research into the history of the origin and issuance of money. Functional finance is more about the effects of the macroeconomics of Keynes and related people."

More Information

Thursday, 20 December 2012

Money multiplier and other myths

Posted on by bill Mitchell



Policies such as Quantitative Easing which has been in the news lately are predicated on a mistaken belief about the way the banking system operates and how the non-government and government sectors interact. One of the hard-core parts of mainstream macroeconomic theory that gets rammed into students early on in their studies, often to their eternal disadvantage, is the concept of the money multiplier. It is a highly damaging concept because it lingers on in the students’ memories forever, or so it seems. It is also not even a slightly accurate depiction of the way banks operate in a modern monetary economy characterised by a fiat currency and a flexible exchange rate. So lets see why!

Allegedly, the money multiplier m transmits changes in the so-called monetary base (MB) (the sum of bank reserves and currency at issue) into changes in the money supply (M). Students then labour through algebra of varying complexity depending on their level of study (they get bombarded with this nonsense several times throughout a typical economics degree) to derive the m, which is most simply expressed as the inverse of the required reserve ratio. So if the central bank told private banks that they had to keep 10 per cent of total deposits as reserves then the required reserve ratio (RRR) would be 0.10 and m would equal 1/0.10 = 10. More complicated formulae are derived when you consider that people also will want to hold some of their deposits as cash. But these complications do not add anything to the story.
The formula for the determination of the money supply is: M = m x MB. So if a $1 is newly deposited in a bank, the money supply will rise (be multiplied) by $10 (if the RRR = 0.10). The way this multiplier is alleged to work is explained as follows (assuming the bank is required to hold 10 per cent of all deposits as reserves):
  • A person deposits say $100 in a bank.
  • To make money, the bank then loans the remaining $90 to a customer.
  • They spend the money and the recipient of the funds deposits it with their bank.
  • That bank then lends 0.9 times $90 = $81 (keeping 0.10 in reserve as required).
  • And so on until the loans become so small that they dissolve to zero …
The following table and graphs shows you what the pattern involved is (unfortunately not shown due to technical problem). They are self-explanatory. In this particular case, I have shown only 20 sequences. In fact, this example would resolve at around 94 iterations as you can see on the graphs where the succesive loans, then fractional deposits get smaller and smaller and eventually become zero.


The conception of the money multiplier is really as simple as that. But while simple it is also wrong to the core! What it implies is that banks first of all take deposits to get funds which they can then on-lend. But prudential regulations require they keep a little in reserve. So we get this credit creation process ballooning out due to the fractional reserve requirements.
Well that is not at all like the real world. It is a stylised text-book model which isn’t even close to how things actually operate. The way banks actually operate is to seek to attract credit-worthy customers to which they can loan funds to and thereby make profit. What constitutes credit-worthiness varies over the business cycle and so lending standards become more lax at boom times as banks chase market share.
These loans are made independent of their reserve positions. Depending on the way the central bank accounts for commercial bank reserves, the latter will then seek funds to ensure they have the required reserves in the relevant accounting period. They can borrow from each other in the interbank market but if the system overall is short of reserves these “horizontal” transactions will not add the required reserves. In these cases, the bank will sell bonds back to the central bank or borrow outright through the device called the “discount window”. There is typically a penalty for using this source of funds.
At the individual bank level, certainly the “price of reserves” will play some role in the credit department’s decision to loan funds. But the reserve position per se will not matter. So as long as the margin between the return on the loan and the rate they would have to borrow from the central bank through the discount window is sufficient, the bank will lend.
So the idea that reserve balances are required initially to “finance” bank balance sheet expansion via rising excess reserves is inapplicable. A bank’s ability to expand its balance sheet is not constrained by the quantity of reserves it holds or any fractional reserve requirements. The bank expands its balance sheet by lending. Loans create deposits which are then backed by reserves after the fact. The process of extending loans (credit) which creates new bank liabilities is unrelated to the reserve position of the bank.
The major insight is that any balance sheet expansion which leaves a bank short of the required reserves may affect the return it can expect on the loan as a consequence of the “penalty” rate the central bank might exact through the discount window. But it will never impede the bank’s capacity to effect the loan in the first place.
What about open market operations? These are allegedly how the central bank increases or decreases the money supply. So assume the central bank wants to increase the money supply it would purchase bonds in the markets and, accordingly, add reserves to the banking system. The banks in turn will try to lend those reserves out because they don’t want to be stuck with underperforming deposits and competition in the overnight markets will drive the interest rate down. Clearly, if the central bank wants to maintain control over the overnight interest rate it has to then drain the excess reserves which would require it offer the banks an interest-bearing asset commensurate with the overnight rate. That is, it would have to sell bonds in an open market operation. The reverse is true if it tried to reduce the money supply by selling bonds. This drains reserves from the cash system and would probably leave some banks short of required reserves. Given the only remedy for an overall shortage of reserves is intervention from the central bank the attempt to decrease the money supply fails.
It is clear that the central bank then is unable to control the volume of money in the system although it can control the price through its monetary policy settings. The money multiplier is a flawed conception of how things work. The monetary base does not drive the money supply. In fact, the reverse is true. So the reserves at any point in time will be determined by the loans that the banks make independent of their reserve positions.
So when you consider this in the light of the current policy debate you have to wonder what half the commentators are on! For example, it makes no sense to say that the credit crunch is because banks have no money to lend and that Quantitative Easing will provide them with “printed money” that they can then lend. Banks will always lend when a credit-worthy customer walks through the door and the terms are to the bank’s favour.
Endogenous money or Wicksellian myths
Mainstream economists are not the only group who demonstrate a misconception of the way the monetary system operates. Among so-called progressive economists there are many, who while recognising that we use a fiat currency (manifest as worthless tokens) rather than a “commodity money” (where the actual unit has intrinsic value), still fail to consider how the currency gets its value and its role in the non-government sector transactions. So-called Circulation or Wickesellian models of the credit cycle which fail to include a government sector are examples of these flawed approaches. In general, these models reject the money multiplier myth but replace it with another – that you can understand capitalism without understanding the essential role that Government plays in the monetary system.
Accordingly, these models consider economies as being made up of households (who supply productive factors and consume); firms (who produce) and banks (who loan working capital to firms in advance of production). And they then analyse the “circuits of production” whereby firms borrow from banks to hire and pay workers to produce. The workers then use their wages to consume and the firms then are able to pay back the banks. At that point the “credit money” is destroyed (and corresponding and offsetting assets and liabilities). Any household saving is reflected in unpaid bank loans at the end of each circuit unless firms offer “bonds” to the households to soak up their saving.
The Wicksellian view then is that “money” is largely created by banks in response to the demand for credit from economic agents. It is clear that the revolving fund of credit finance can expand to accommodate growth in private sector activity, at a rate related proportionately to the product of provisioning rates for capital adequacy requirements and the percentage of retained earnings available for leveraged lending. For this very reason, the private sector can take up some of the slack created through government fiscal conservatism. However, and this is the crux of the modern monetary view, this growth will become unsustainable because net financial assets are either being destroyed or are not being created in insufficient quantity to meet the net saving needs of the private sector. Private sector debt levels will be rising while the stock of net financial assets declines. But back to the main story!
So the “elephant in the room” which is ignored by these analyses is the question of the currency unit. Why would these transactional circuits use the unit that the Government has legally sanctioned? Why would anyone accept the unit of account? You cannot answer these fundamental questions if you have excluded the Government sector from your analysis. Further models that exclude government clearly cannot say anything about the important fiscal effects on bank reserves?
Modern monetary theorists consider the credit creation process to be the “leveraging of high powered money”. The only way you can understand why all this non-government “leveraging activity” (borrowing, repaying etc) can take place is to consider the role of the Government initially – that is, as the centrepiece of the macroeconomic theory. Banks clearly do expand the money supply endogenously – that is, without the ability of the central bank to control it. But all this activity is leveraging the high powered money (HPM) created by the interaction between the government and non-government sectors.
HPM or the monetary base is the sum of the currency issued by the State (notes and coins) and bank reserves (which are liabilities of the central bank). HPM is an IOU of the sovereign government – it promises to pay you $A10 for every $A10 you give them! All Government spending involves the same process – the reserve accounts that the commercial banks keep with the central bank are credited in HPM (an IOU is created). This is why the “printing money” claims are so ignorant. The reverse happens when taxes are paid – the reserves are debited in HPM and the assets are drained from the system (an IOU is destroyed). Keep this in mind.
HPM enters the economy via so-called vertical transactions. Please refer back to Deficit spending 101 – Part 1; Deficit spending 101 – Part 2 and Deficit spending 101 – Part 3 for the details and supporting diagrams.
So HPM enters the system through government spending and exits via taxation. When the government is running a budget deficit, net financial assets (HPM) are entering the banking system. Fiscal policy therefore directly influences the supply of HPM. The central bank also creates and drains HPM through its dealings with the commercial banks which are designed to ensure the reserve positions are commensurate with the interest rate target the central bank desires. They also create and destroy HPM in other ways including foreign exchange transactions and gold sales.
We can think of the accumulated sum of the vertical transactions as being reflected in an accounting sense in the store of wealth that the non-government sector has. When the government runs a deficit there is a build up of wealth (in $A) in the non-government sector and vice-versa. Budget surpluses force the private sector to “run down” the wealth they accumulated from previous deficits.
One we understand the transactions between the government and non-government then we can consider the non-government credit creation process. The important point though is that all transactions at the non-government level balance out – they “net to zero”. For every asset that is created so there is a corresponding liability – $-for-$. So credit expansion always nets to zero! In previous blogs I have called the credit creation process the “horizontal” level of analysis to distinguish it from the vertical transactions that mark the relationship between the government and non-government sectors.
The vertical transactions introduce the currency into the economy while the horizontal transactions “leverage” this vertical component. Private capitalist firms (including banks) try to profit from taking so-called asset positions through the creation of liabilities denominated in the unit of account that defines the HPM ($A for us). So for banks, these activities – the so-called credit creation – is leveraging the HPM created by the vertical transactions because when a bank issues a liability it can readily be exchanged on demand for HPM.
When a bank makes a $A-denominated loan it simultaneously creates an equal $A-denominated deposit. So it buys an asset (the borrower’s IOU) and creates a deposit (bank liability). For the borrower, the IOU is a liability and the deposit is an asset (money). The bank does this in the expectation that the borrower will demand HPM (withdraw the deposit) and spend it. The act of spending then shifts reserves between banks. These bank liabilities (deposits) become “money” within the non-government sector. But you can see that nothing net has been created.
Only vertical transactions create/destroy assets that do not have corresponding liabilities. My friend and sometime co-author Randy Wray puts it this way:
Credit money (say, a bank demand deposit) is an IOU of the issuer (the bank), offset by a loan that is held as an asset. The loan, in turn, represents an IOU of the borrower, while the credit money is held as an asset by a depositor. On this view, money is neither a commodity (such as coined gold), nor is it ‘fiat’ (an asset without a matching liability).
But what gives the unit of account chosen by the Government its primacy. Why do all the banks and customers demand it? The answer is that state money (in our case the $A) is demanded because the Government will only allow it to be used to extinguish tax liabilities. So the tax liability can only be met by getting hold of the Governments own IOU – the $A. Further, the only way that we can get hold of that unit of account is by offering to supply goods and services to the Government in return for their spending. The Government spending provides the funds that allow us to pay our taxes! That is the reverse of what most people think.
This process is how the Government ensures it can get private resources in sufficient quantities to conduct its own socio-economic policy mandate. It buys labour and other resources and creates public infrastructure and services. We are eager to supply our goods and services in return for the spending because we can get hold of $A.
So the private money creation activity that is central to many progressive models misses the essential point – that the credit creation activity is leveraging of the HPM – and is acceptable for clearing private liabilities (repaying loans) only because it is the only vehicle for extinguishing one’s tax liabilities to the state.
References
Graziani, A. (1990) ‘The Theory of the Monetary Circuit’, Economies et Societes.
Mosler, W.B. and Forstater, M. (2002) A General Analytical Framework for the Analysis of Currencies and Other Commodities.

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