Showing posts with label science. Show all posts
Showing posts with label science. Show all posts

Wednesday, 4 September 2013

Economics as a Science of Infrastructure

Economics as a Science of Infrastructure
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Christian Arnsperger:
"Economics is a science of infrastructure. Its sole social function -- but it is, of course, an important one -- is to work out the conditions under which everyone can access the required goods and services to live a full life. Period. By infrastructure I mean here not just investment goods and equipment (which is what the word means in common parlance), but whatever resources are necessary to underpin, or support from the inside ("infra") the search for a full life. This includes both annual income and accumulated wealth, i.e., flows as well as stocks, private as well as collective.
This means that scarcity has to be overcome in all relevant existential dimensions, to whatever extent necessary for full access to be ensured for each and every human being on earth. But the way to overcome scarcity -- the mechanisms by which "tradeoffs" are going to be made through the adjustment of economic variables -- is a matter for political choice, not a technocratic issue at all. Technicians, among which most of today's economists, have no entitlement in determining these mechanisms. As technicians they can only follow the guidelines established by political decisions. Now it may be that, perhaps, there is a "congruence" mapping linking certain types of "fullness" of life to certain types of scarcity-overcoming mechanisms. To that extent, and that extent only, is the economist allowed any critical claim. But if so, then competence in the philosophy and anthropology of economics is required. Most economists nowadays do not have that competence. This implies that most of today's economists have no entitlement to express preferences as to what kind of scarcity-overcoming mechanisms are to be politically chosen and implemented. However, once such a philosophical and anthropological competence is developed -- as I believe it ought to be -- an existentially and ecologically informed institutional economics can become a discipline that constructs and promotes normative arguments about which scarcity-overcoming mechanisms are preferable.
Data about the "happiness paradox" show that there is indeed a level of economic infrastructure (goods and services) below which the search for a full life is deeply impaired. Let's call this level the happiness threshold. (We'll change that name in a moment to something better.) This provides ample justification for the existence of a science of the economy. In fact, economics is part of the economic infrastructure it purports to study. Economists have to judge themselves on the basis of how well they fulfill the task at hand. This means that no element of the infrastructure -- neither the way the economic system as a whole is organized, nor the way in which the economics profession is organized -- can be off limits. The only task at hand is this: to ensure that every single member of humanity accesses the happiness threshold.
Above the happiness threshold, the building and maintenance of per-capita economic infrastructure is pathological. It means that people keep generating more income and wealth -- eventually in the form of constant "growth" -- while their search for existential fullness stagnates. This is the pinnacle of absurdity. It illustrates a simple but extremely important fact: Once per capita economic infrastructure has exceeded the happiness threshold, an economic science that takes as its objective the continuation of that "growth" for any individual is a science of existential avoidance. Therefore, the threshold is more aptly termed the "existential-absurdity threshold." Let me explain.
One hallmark of existential absurdity is that you keep on doing something that has long since lost its initial meaning. You're on a mechanical treadmill, going through the motions and no longer recalling precisely why you're here. We often have this feeling in our lives, and waking up to the reality of absurdity can be extremely painful. In the most extreme cases -- which, unsurprisingly, are getting more and more frequent in today's economic climate -- the waking-up mechanism is curtailed by addiction: you can't wake up because that would simply mean the end of what you feel is Your Life, with capital Y and capital L. For the addicted, waking up means dying. But even in less extreme cases where waking up would merely imply a more or less severe dose of transitory discomfort, keeping on the treadmill is literally a way to avoid the pain of waking up to the absurdity. The best parable for this figures in Antoine de Saint ExupĂ©ry's Little Prince, when the small boy asks a drunk what he's doing. "I’m drinking," answers the man. "And why are you drinking?" retorts the Little Prince. "To forget." "And to forget what?" The man’s answer pierces the reader’s heart: "To forget that I'm drinking." Haven't we all, in one form or another, experienced this inner dialogue?
No one is entitled to impose the specifics of what "a full life" means. However, unless we are already fully alienated to the pervading culture, we must recognize that there are some constants to the quest for existential fullness. To witness, the sorts of preoccupations our toddlers, children, youngsters, and adolescents have when they're not busy conforming to the latest commercial fashion or TV fad. What preoccupations? The basic "business of life": getting reassurance, warmth, and affection; building and maintaining meaningful human relationships; coping with the fragility of one's body and psyche; integrating one's sexual impulses; giving one's vital energy to causes worth fighting for; feeling at home in nature; knowing why one is alive, whether there is a transcendent meaning and how one can understand it and translate it into one's actions. With apologies, let me wrap all these things together in the somewhat dry expression "existential integration." No, not food, not water, not shelter, not clothing -- those are already part, albeit a very basic, indispensable part, of the infrastructure. Health yes, in the sense of a basic feeling or awareness of one's body, mind, and spirit operating in a fluid synergy and opening up horizons of sensation, thought, meaning, and understanding; but health services, no, and not medication, either. The latter are, again, part of the very basic infrastructure, the access to which it's the economist's job to secure for everyone.
None of this implies that anyone is going to impose one specific doctrine or faith about existential integration should be gotten. That's open. What matters is that the path to existential integration not be obstructed by a peculiar, and particularly pernicious, form of poverty: the poverty of economic affluence…
When kids or young people get caught up in fashion, fads, or imitation rivalry, they have already been infected by existential alienation. It's not specific to our modern commercial culture. However, the curse of consumerism is that it creates the deadly illusion that existential integration can be equated with a flow of goods and services, extending all the way to health services and medications (which also get more and more routinely over-consumed). To the extent this is the case, "commodities" end up summarizing existential integration in the very process of also making it meaningless -- and the whole economic infrastructure becomes a scam for existential avoidance: escapism from fragility, relationship, mortality, sexuality, etc. There's a lot of death and sex imagery in consumer culture, but it's precisely there to mask the true issues involved in mortality and sexuality.
In that sense, there is a widespread, rampant poverty in affluent society. It is quite literally a poverty created by the very affluence and opulence we have generated to block out the difficulties of true existential integration. You can be poor by being insufficiently rich, i.e., when your economic infrastructure lies below the existential-absurdity threshold; but you can also be poor by being too rich, i.e., when your economic infrastructure lies above that threshold.
Let's distinguish between a lower and an upper threshold: below threshold A, you are poor by lack of economic infrastructure; above threshold B, you are poor by excess of economic infrastructure. Below A, your existential integration is bad-to-mediocre because of sheer lack, and it improves only slowly as you get somewhat less poor, picking up speed as you reach threshold A. Between A and B, you can develop your potential for existential integration by actually using the economic infrastructure to enhance your integration -- that is, by using health care and transport and clothing and food to pursue and perfect your relationships, sexuality, religious quest, and so on. Above B, however, as material wealth continues to climb your existential integration dwindles, and you might get so caught up in the absurdities of large wealth that you could drop to pre-A integration levels. The factors that account for these threshold effects can either be linked to (a) the unanticipated external effects of infrastructure buildup, such as the degradation of social relations and the degradation of environmental conditions; or they can be linked to (b) the unconscious internal effects of infrastructure buildup, such as the alienation suffered in meaningless work, in mindless accumulation, or in mechanical consumption. (In this blog, I have called the former "bio-environmental externalities" and the latter "anthropo-environmental internalities." See the April 18, 2011 post.)
Economics is about keeping us all prosperous, not about making us ever more affluent. That's a very wrong message, which the hijacking of economic science by the industrial-capitalist-modern mentality has ended up sending out. Economics ought to be about nothing else than maintaining human beings between these two thresholds -- prosperous, which means neither too despondent nor too affluent. It's a great and noble task, full of links to psychology, ecology, and spirituality. It's why I wanted to be an economist. And it's also what no economics class ever taught me because for two centuries economists have been busy trying to push people above threshold A. Meanwhile, economists have become so engrossed by wealth as a value, and by the social legitimacy which their role as professional assistants to "wealth creation" gave them in the eyes of the powerful (as well as being a juicy a source of financing for their own personal career purposes) that they have ended up forgetting to look out for threshold B.
Moreover, they have in their overwhelming majority -- and despite their above-mentioned incompetence in matters of philosophy and anthropology -- taught the "virtues" of an economic system whose logic makes some people's overcoming of threshold A dependent on other people's overshooting threshold B. This is the current rhetoric of free-market "development" through international trade or, more generally, the rhetoric of a "trickle-down effect" going from the affluent over-consumers to the under-consuming poor. It neglects the existence and relevance of the A/B divide. All economic systems that make some people's overshooting of B a mechanical or technical condition for the survival of those who remain below A are perverse systems.
To renew economics, we simply need to make visible the distinction between thresholds A and B, and to insist that navigating the more or less narrow space between them is what the "new" economics should be about. Economics should be about wealth reduction just as much as about wealth creation. (Please note that I wrote "just as much as," not "instead of.") When this is so, it will be about prosperity, as indeed it should be: a science of increasing or reducing economic infrastructure in the name of people's existential integration." (http://eco-transitions.blogspot.com/2012/01/and-now-for-bit-of-philosophy-on.html)

Friday, 30 November 2012

Complexity Economics

Complexity economics is the application of complexity science to the problems of economics. It studies computer simulations to gain insight into economic dynamics, and avoids the assumption that the economy is a system in equilibrium.[1]

Contents

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[edit] Models

The "nearly archetypal example" is an artificial stock market model created by the Santa Fe Institute in 1989.[2] The model shows two different outcomes, one where "agents do not search much for predictors and there is convergence on a homogeneous rational expectations outcome" and another where "all kinds of technical trading strategies appearing and remaining and periods of bubbles and crashes occurring".[2]
Another area has studied the prisoner's dilemma, such as in a network where agents play amongst their nearest neighbors or a network where the agents can make mistakes from time to time and "evolve strategies".[2] In these models, the results show a system which displays "a pattern of constantly changing distributions of the strategies".[2]
More generally, complexity economics models are often used to study how non-intuitive results at the macro-level of a system can emerge from simple interactions at the micro level. This avoids assumptions of the representative agent method, which attributes outcomes in collective systems as the simple sum of the rational actions of the individuals.

[edit] Measures

Harvard Economist Ricardo Hausmann and MIT's physicist Cesar A. Hidalgo introduced a spectral method to measure the complexity of a country's economy by inferring it from the structure of the network connecting countries to the products that they export. The measure combines information of a country's diversity, which is positively correlated with a country's productive knowledge, with measures of a product ubiquity (number of countries that produce or export the product).[3][4] This concept, known as the "Product Space", has been further developed by the Harvard-MIT Observatory of Economic Complexity, releasing the Atlas of Economic Complexity[4] in 2011.

[edit] Relevance

The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) introduced by Hausmann and Hidalgo [3][4] is highly predictive of future GDP per capita growth. In [4] Hausmann, Hidalgo et al. show that the ability of the ECI to predict future GDP per capita growth is between 5 times and 20 times larger than the World Bank's measure of governance, the World Economic Forum's (WEF) Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) and standard measures of human capital, such as years of schooling and cognitive ability.[5][6]

[edit] Features

Brian Arthur, Steven N. Durlauf, and David A. Lane describe several features of complex systems that deserve greater attention in economics.[7]
  1. Dispersed interaction—The economy has interaction between many dispersed, heterogeneous, agents. The action of any given agent depends upon the anticipated actions of other agents and on the aggregate state of the economy.
  2. No global controller—Controls are provided by mechanisms of competition and coordination between agents. Economic actions are mediated by legal institutions, assigned roles, and shifting associations. No global entity controls interactions. Traditionally, a fictitious auctioneer has appeared in some mathematical analyses of general equilibrium models, although nobody claimed any descriptive accuracy for such models. Traditionally, many mainstream models have imposed constraints, such as requiring that budgets be balanced, and such constraints are avoided in complexity economics.
  3. Cross-cutting hierarchical organization—The economy has many levels of organization and interaction. Units at any given level behaviors, actions, strategies, products typically serve as "building blocks" for constructing units at the next higher level. The overall organization is more than hierarchical, with many sorts of tangling interactions (associations, channels of communication) across levels.
  4. Ongoing adaptation—Behaviors, actions, strategies, and products are revised frequently as the individual agents accumulate experience.[8]
  5. Novelty niches—Such niches are associated with new markets, new technologies, new behaviors, and new institutions. The very act of filling a niche may provide new niches. The result is ongoing novelty.
  6. Out-of-equilibrium dynamics—Because new niches, new potentials, new possibilities, are continually created, the economy functions without attaining any optimum or global equilibrium. Improvements occur regularly.

[edit] Contemporary trends in economics

Complexity economics has a complex relation to previous work in economics and other sciences, and to contemporary economics. Complexity-theoretic thinking to understand economic problems has been present since their inception as academic disciplines. Research as shown, that no two separate micro-events are completely isolated,[9] and there is definitely a relationship that cause a major macroeconomic structure. However, the relationship is not always in one direction, but there is a reciprocal influence when feedback is in operation.[10]
Complexity economics has been applied to many fields.

[edit] Intellectual predecessors

Complexity economics draws inspiration from behavioral economics, Marxian economics, institutional economics/evolutionary economics, Austrian economics and the work of Adam Smith.[11] It also draws inspiration from other fields, such as statistical mechanics in physics, and evolutionary biology. Some of the 20th century intellectual background of complexity theory in economics is examined in Alan Marshall (2002) The Unity of Nature, Imperial College Press: London.

[edit] Applications

The theory of complex dynamic systems has been applied in diverse fields in economics and other decision sciences. These applications include capital theory,[12][13] game theory,[14] the dynamics of opinions among agents composed of multiple selves,[15] and macroeconomics.[16] In voting theory, the methods of symbolic dynamics have been applied by Donald G. Saari.[17] Complexity economics has attracted the attention of historians of economics.[18]

[edit] Complexity economics as mainstream, but non-orthodox

According to Colander (2000), Colander, Holt & Rosser (2004), and Davis (2008) contemporary mainstream economics is evolving to be more "eclectic",[19][20] diverse,[21][22][23] and pluralistic.[24] Colander, Holt & Rosser (2004) state that contemporary mainstream economics is "moving away from a strict adherence to the holy trinity---rationality, selfishness, and equilibrium", citing complexity economics along with recursive economics and dynamical systems as contributions to these trends.[25] They classify complexity economics as now mainstream but non-orthodox.[26][27]

[edit] Criticism

In 1995-1997 publications, Scientific American journalist John Horgan "ridiculed" the movement as being the fourth C among the "failed fads" of "complexity, chaos, catastrophe, and cybernetics".[2] In 1997, Horgan wrote that the approach had "created some potent metaphors: the butterfly effect, fractals, artificial life, the edge of chaos, self organized criticality. But they have not told us anything about the world that is both concrete and truly surprising, either in a negative or in a positive sense".[2][28][29]
Rosser "granted" Horgan "that it is hard to identify a concrete and surprising discovery (rather than "mere metaphor") that has arisen due to the emergence of complexity analysis" in the discussion journal of the American Economic Association, the Journal of Economic Perspectives.[2] Surveying economic studies based on complexity science, Rosser wrote that the findings, rather than being surprising, confirmed "already-observed facts".[2] Rosser wrote that there has been "little work on empirical techniques for testing dispersed agent complexity models".[2] Nonetheless, Rosser wrote that "there is a strain of common perspective that has been accumulating as the four C's of cybernetics, catastrophe, chaos and complexity emerged, which may now be reaching a critical mass in terms of influencing the thinking of economists more broadly".[2]

[edit] See also

[edit] Notes

  1. ^ Beinhocker, Eric D. The Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics. Boston, Massachusetts: Harvard Business School Press, 2006.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Rosser, J. Barkley, Jr. "On the Complexities of Complex Economic Dynamics" Journal of Economic Perspectives, V. 13, N. 4 (Fall 1999): 169-192.
  3. ^ a b Hidalgo, Cesar A.; Hausmann Ricardo (2009). "The Building Block of Economic Complexity". PNAS 106 (106(26)): 10570–10575. doi:10.1073/pnas.0900943106. PMC 2705545. PMID 19549871. //www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2705545/.
  4. ^ a b c d Hausmann & Hidalgo et al. (2011). The Atlas of Economic Complexity. Cambridge MA: Puritan Press. ISBN 0615546625. http://atlas.media.mit.edu/book/.
  5. ^ "Complexity matters". The Economist. Oct 27th 2011. http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/10/buidling-blocks-economic-growth.
  6. ^ "Diversity Training". The Economist. Feb 4, 2010. http://www.economist.com/node/15452697?story_id=15452697.
  7. ^ Arthur, Brian; Durlauf, Steven; Lane, David A (1997). "Introduction: Process and Emergence in the Economy". The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley. http://www.santafe.edu/~wbarthur/Papers/ADLIntro.html. Retrieved 2008-08-26
  8. ^ Shiozawa, Y. (2004). "Evolutionary Economics in the 21st Century: A Manifest". Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review 1 (1): 5–47.
  9. ^ Albert-Laszlo Barabasi "explaining (at 27:07) that no two events are completely isolated in the BBC Documentary". BBC. http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/six-degrees-of-separation/. Retrieved 11 June 2012. "Unfolding the science behind the idea of six degrees of separation"
  10. ^ "Page 20 - Ten Principles of Complexity & Enabling Infrastructures". by Professor Eve Mitleton-Kelly, Director Complexity Research Programme, London School of Economics. http://psych.lse.ac.uk/complexity/Papers/Ch2final.pdf. Retrieved 1 June 2012.
  11. ^ Colander, David (March, 2008). "Complexity and the History of Economic Thought". http://sandcat.middlebury.edu/econ/repec/mdl/ancoec/0804.pdf. Retrieved 29 July 2012.
  12. ^ Rosser, J. Barkley, Jr. "Reswitching as a Cusp Catastrophe", Journal of Economic Theory, V. 31 (1983): 182-193
  13. ^ Ahmad, Syed Capital in Economic Theory: Neo-classical, Cambridge, and Chaos. Brookfield: Edward Elgar (1991)
  14. ^ Sato, Yuzuru, Eizo Akiyama and J. Doyne Farmer. "Chaos in learning a simple two-person game", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, V. 99, N. 7 (2 Apr. 2002): 4748-4751
  15. ^ Krause, Ulrich. "Collective Dynamics of Faustian Agents", in Economic Theory and Economic Thought: Essays in honour of Ian Steedman (ed. by John Vint et al.) Routledge: 2010.
  16. ^ Flaschel, Peter and Christian R. Proano (2009). "The J2 Status of 'Chaos' in Period Macroeconomics Models"</A>, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, V. 13, N. 2. http://www.bepress.com/snde/vol13/iss2/art2/
  17. ^ Saari, Donald G. Chaotic Elections: A Mathematician Looks at Voting. American Mathematical Society (2001).
  18. ^ Bausor, Randall. "Qualitative dynamics in economics and fluid mechanics: a comparison of recent applications", in Natural Images in Economic Thought: Markets Read in Tooth and Claw (ed. by Philip Mirowski). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (1994).
  19. ^ "Economists today are not neoclassical according to any reasonable definition of the term. They are far more eclectic, and concerned with different issues than were the economists of the early 1900s, whom the term was originally designed to describe." Colander (2000, p. 130)
  20. ^ "Modern economics involves a broader world view and is far more eclectic than the neoclassical terminology allows." Colander (2000, p. 133)
  21. ^ "In our view, the interesting story in economics over the past decades is the increasing variance of acceptable views..." Colander, Holt & Rosser (2004, p. 487)
  22. ^ "In work at the edge, ideas that previously had been considered central to economics are being modified and broadened, and the process is changing the very nature of economics." Colander, Holt & Rosser (2004, p. 487)
  23. ^ "When certain members of the existing elite become open to new ideas, that openness allows new ideas to expand, develop, and integrate into the profession... These alternative channels allow the mainstream to expand, and to evolve to include a wider range of approaches and understandings... This, we believe, is already occurring in economics." Colander, Holt & Rosser (2004, pp. 488–489)
  24. ^ "despite an increasing pluralism on the mainstream economics research frontier..." Davis (2008, p. 353)
  25. ^ Colander, Holt & Rosser (2004, p. 485)
  26. ^ "The second (Santa Fe) conference saw a very different outcome and atmosphere than the first. No longer were mainstream economists defensively adhering to general equilibrium orthodoxy... By 1997, the mainstream accepted many of the methods and approaches that were associated with the complexity approach." Colander, Holt & Rosser (2004, p. 497) Colander, Holt & Rosser (2004, pp. 490–492) distinguish between orthodox and mainstream economics.
  27. ^ Davis (2008, p. 354)
  28. ^ Horgan, John, "From Complexity to Perplexity," Scientific American, June 1995, 272:6, 104 09.
  29. ^ Horgan, John, The End of Science: Facing the Limits of Knowledge in the Twilight of the Scientific Age. Paperback ed, New York: Broadway Books, 1997.

[edit] References

[edit] External links






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