Showing posts with label the conversation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label the conversation. Show all posts

Wednesday, 11 October 2017

Why capitalism wins. And how a simple accounting move can defeat it

                     
Blazing remnants of the off shore oil rig Deepwater Horizon, off Louisiana, in 2010. The losses produced by polluting companies should cost as ‘negative’ for a country’s growth. Reuters/US Coast Guard/Files   




      


Notwithstanding its many flaws and centuries of criticisms, capitalism is still the dominant economic system globally. What made it so resilient?
Without denying the importance of entrenched interests among ruling classes, I believe the real strength of capitalism stems from the theory of value it has imposed on society. The theory can be summed up as follows: value is only created through market transactions, which are always positive for the economy. The rest - like social costs and ecological impacts - doesn’t matter.
Classical sociologists and economists like Max Weber, Joseph Schumpeter and Werner Sombart saw the adoption of a specific form of accounting for measuring performance in industries - so-called double-entry bookkeeping - as a critical factor to explain the rise of capitalism before and after the industrial revolution. Since then, we have simply assumed that what is good for the firm must be good for society.
As I show in my book Gross Domestic Problem, even socialist systems largely accepted capitalism’s accounting approach, ultimately failing to beat capitalism at its game.
But the global debate is shifting. The Sustainable Development Goals recognise that real value is only created when economic development leads to improvements in social and environmental dynamics. I argue that, by changing our headline indicators of prosperity in line with this new thinking, we can show capitalism’s inefficiencies and contribute to its demise.

Change accounting, change the world

Accounting is not a neutral exercise. As the term suggests, indicators “indicate” the path to follow to improve performance. In the end, governments, companies and societies at large strive to achieve what is counted, while disregarding what is not.
Of all accounting tools, the most powerful is the gross domestic product (GDP), the headline indicator of economic performance. GDP fully endorses the capitalist theory of value: it views market transactions as the only drivers of development, as opposed to non-market exchanges; it considers as positive all forms of production and consumption, regardless of their impact on economic welfare; and it neglects social and environmental impacts. For as long as our approach to economic growth is determined by GDP, capitalism will continue having the upper hand.
The good news is that, for the first time in almost a century of national income accounting, there is now a window of opportunity for change. A growing number of global institutions, including influential actors like the World Economic Forum are calling for a shift beyond GDP.
When we apply any of these new indicators, which integrate social and environmental impacts into the concept of economic performance, the alleged efficiencies of capitalism disappear. For instance, the genuine progress indicator shows that the global economy has massively under performed since the early 1980s, at the same time as free market reforms were boosting GDP. The genuine progress indicator deducts costs of environmental damage and social ills from economic performance.
Using a similar approach, UN-sponsored studies conclude that some of the world’s largest corporations actually generate more costs to society than profits. This is particularly true of fossil fuel and commercial food companies. The negative environmental effects of their operations are estimated to be in excess of USD$7 trillion a year.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the club of the world’s richest countries, has developed a “better life index”. It underlines how prosperity is determined more by factors like community engagement, work life balance, health and the environment than by income.
The organisation estimates that value generated for the economy by families and communities through self-production and informal exchanges – notoriously neglected by GDP – is equivalent to over 50% of everything the market produces.
And what about the non-monetary activities performed by civil society? According to the World Bank, associations have a massive impact on the economy by building the interpersonal trust – a precondition for a functioning market. In money equivalent, their contribution would be over 20% of the value of all goods and services produced by businesses.
These are the real ‘invisible hands’ supporting the economy.

A new world

By portraying corporations as the sole creators of value and by hiding their social and environmental costs, GDP has further entrenched the capitalist grip on power. But as we move beyond GDP, we begin to realise that the emperor has no clothes. A new accounting approach linking economic, social and environmental dynamics – what I call ‘wellbeing accounting’ – can indeed have game-changing effects.
Take fossil fuels. After the recent hurricanes in the US, several experts rightly argued that oil companies should be taken to court and charged with covering the costs of damage.
New accounting would make such an approach automatic. The losses produced by polluting companies would count as ‘negative’ for the country’s growth. This, in turn, would force policy makers to push renewable energies if they want to improve their economic performance.
The alleged virtues of globalisation rest almost entirely on GDP’s blindness to global trade’s environmental and social impact. But new accounting methods do the opposite: they reveal global trade’s negative effects and highlight the more efficient value creation of local and regional exchanges.
Our perception of global leadership would change too. The US and China may look “big” in GDP terms, but the real champions of social progress are some middle powers. These include Costa Rica to New Zealand which have built strong economies while improving the quality of social and natural dynamics.
Moving away from GDP would also benefit developing nations, especially in Africa. It would put an end to the traditional capitalist approach that equates prosperity with exploitation of people and nature, This in turn would allow countries to experiment with new forms of development.

Wellbeing accounting

GDP accounting is what keeps capitalism on life support. As I discuss in two recent books The World After GDP _and _Wellbeing Economy, a shift to new forms of accounting would eliminate the statistical foundations on which capitalism’s credibility rests.
In the end, this is precisely what Adam Smith did with the founding book of capitalism,The Wealth of Nations He questioned the traditional approach to value creation. Smith argued that the real creators of wealth were not the kings and knights that dominated the political scene, but the captains of industry who steered the new industrial market. By shifting the accounting approach, he reinforced the demand for power that would soon lead to the modern revolutions and the dominance of capitalism.
Similarly, well-being accounting shows that an economy promoting the public good and the commons can generate more wealth than the capitalist market. Through new numbers, it aims to embolden all those actors marginalised by the capitalist theory of value. Above all, it equips them with new tools to demand more power and a radically different approach to growth and development. It’s a smart way to beat capitalism by stealth, once and for all.

Friday, 28 March 2014

The Productive Way to Address Global Warming

By Geoff Davies from the Better Nature Blog.


Most of the discussion of global warming is about the wrong questions. Much of the argument is about the scientific evidence that global warming is occurring (overwhelming) and the scientific evidence that human activities are the dominant cause (very strong evidence).  The latter is sometimes termed Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW).  The “sceptic” arguments are about the remaining scientific uncertainty, but this confuses the scientific debate with the policy debate.  The policy implications can be clear even while the (legitimate) scientific debate continues.
In my view the “sceptic” debate is not really about the science, it is about defending a world view.  This was well explained by Stephan Lewandowski on the ABC’s Drum.  The text is reproduced here.
Even our perception of what other Australians think is quite distorted.  Iain Walker of CSIRO reports some revealing surveys at The Conversation.  The article is reproduced under the AGW tab here.
Anyway the productive debate is about the level of risk, the consequences of inaction and the cost of action.  So as to minimise the continuing spurious discussions here and elsewhere, I’ll set it out as I see it.
Uncertainty
There is always uncertainty in science.  There is uncertainty in the accuracy of measurements, in the completeness of measurements and in the adequacy of our understanding.  For a system as complex as the climate system there will always be uncertainty.  Nevertheless climate science is a lot stronger than is claimed by sceptics.  The main conclusions are supported by multiple independent lines of evidence, so nit-picking one line like “models” does not invalidate it.
Uncertainty cuts both ways
It’s true that global warming might not turn out as bad as we thought.  It’s also true that it might turn out worse than we thought.  In significant ways it is turning out worse than projections from 5 or 10 years ago.
Risk
Given the uncertainty combined with the indications of human-caused warming, we need to estimate risks.
• What is the risk that global warming will continue?
• What is the risk that we are causing global warming?
• What is the risk that global warming will have bad or catastrophic consequences?
How do we evaluate the risks?
These risks are not quantifiable.  The best we can hope for is to make well-informed judgements.
Who is best-place to make these judgements?
The judgements obviously require a good grasp of the evidence and a good grasp of our current understanding of how the climate system works.  The people who know these things best are climate scientists.
Who else might make such judgements?  Certainly not politicians, attack-dog journalists and shock jocks, who don’t have the beginning of an understanding of the subject.  Certainly not those whose vested interest is to deny any human-caused global warming.  If you would trust any of them ahead of the scientists who spend their lives working to understand the climate system, then you subscribe to a highly implausible conspiracy theory and ignore a very obvious conspiracy (to spread confusion), and I have nothing more to say to you.
Have such judgements been made?
Yes, and they have been stated clearly.  The most comprehensive have been by the IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change).
The IPCC in 2007 stated that global warming is occurring, and it is highly likely (90% probability) that humans are causing it.  (Here I will not go into the science behind these judgements, because this is precisely where the debate gets deflected from the one we should be having.)
Can the IPCC judgements be trusted?
Not entirely.  Their conclusions were vetted by politicians and some of the more challenging conclusions were removed at the insistence of China, the US and other countries with big vested interests in fossil fuels – that’s why it’s called an inter-governmental panel.  Their process was also rather slow and conservative, so even the un-vetted conclusions may have been dated and too conservative.
Many climate scientists soon pointed out that the situation is likely to be worse than portrayed in the 2007 IPCC report, though that is not the bias climate sceptics usually mention.  Also some sceptics challenge the IPCC’s use of probabilities, without making clear that they are an attempt to clarify the meaning of qualitative terms like “likely” and “highly likely”.  They are attempts to convey the reliability of the judgements, not the science.
Nevertheless the IPCC message is clear and alarming (the news is alarming, not the messengers).
How certain should we be before we act?
The response of the climate system to greenhouse gas emissions is delayed by two or three decades.  By the time we agree the uncertainty is acceptably low, it will be too late.  We must, if we are to avoid disaster, act before we have reasonably complete knowledge.
Our politicians do that all the time, and with far less evidence, on many important topics.
What are the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions?
If we are causing global warming through our emissions of greenhouse gases, which of the following options best conveys the cost of reducing and eventually eliminating those emissions?
a) it would wreck most countries’ economies
b) it would be a substantial but bearable cost
c) it would be a minor cost
d) it would save more money than it would cost
You may be surprised to learn that many economists these days would say (c), though  some diehards cling to (b).  Many environmentalists say (b), and point to the moral imperative to sacrifice, but they could be better informed.  Many fossil fuel companies and other vested interests promote the myth of (a).  (Well, you could wreck economies by going about it the wrong way, like relying on “clean coal” and other such distant, expensive, risky and uncertain fantasies.)
However most economists are not actually very knowledgable about technology or business (or many other things you’d think they ought to know about).
A minority of economists, business people, technologists, town planners, etc. point out that many better designs, technologies and ways of organising our societies already exist that dramatically cut greenhouse gas emissions while saving money, or at a cost that is a very sensible investment.  People who assess the prospects of this approach argue that emissions could be reduced to near zero by 2050 at small or negative cost (eg. RMICircular, and many other studies).  They assume only present technology or modest and plausible developments of it – technology is not the limitation.
So the best answer is
no more than (c, a minor cost), but (d, a saving), if we do it right.
What if we do nothing, or not enough?
At some point global warming is likely to run out of control and ramp up to 4, 6 or more degrees Celsius (at present it is about 0.8°C), because natural processes like release of gases from warming tundra kick in and tip it into runaway warming.
We don’t really know where the tipping point might be.  New science is suggesting it might be below 2°C of warming.  It could conceivably be happening now, for all we know (those uncertainties again).  James Hanson thinks we should limit warming to no more than 1°C, and bring it down quickly even from that.  That would, by now, be a big but not impossible challenge.
What are the consequences of doing nothing, or not enough?
I did not ask what are the costs, because the consequences go far beyond any meaningful dollar values.  The consequences go far beyond a few extra heat waves, fires, storms and floods.  The Earth would become an unfamiliar place, unlike anything since our fragile civilisation began around 10,000 years ago.  Here are a few plausible possibilities.
The Great Barrier Reef an early casualty (it may already be too late).
The present global industrial system another early casualty (victim of severe weather, disrupted supply lines, peak oil, political disruptions, and its own internal fragility among other factors).  Real hardship for many people, with rising death rates.
Half the world’s cities flooded within 100-200 years, and continuing sea level rise for centuries.
Food production dramatically disrupted, resulting in millions, possibly hundreds of millions, conceivably billions of deaths.
Up to half of the world’s species extinct.
On the way to those extinctions, severe disruption of ecosystems resulting in plagues and pandemics.
Wars over territory and dwindling resources.
A dark time for humanity.
What would be left?
Life on Earth would certainly survive, though diminished by a significant mass extinction.  Humans would survive, though in an impoverished world.  Settled communities would be challenged by continuing climate instability, probably for thousands of years.  A much diminished form of civilisation might survive, though not with certainty.  Global inter-dependence would be severely weakened, local economies would be necessary.  Of the current richness of human culture and knowledge, who knows?
Conclusion
So, the risk is high and the consequences potentially catastrophic or apocalyptic.  That is the best judgement of those best-placed to know.
The cost of avoiding disaster is not large, but we have to act soon.  We just have to be willing to change many of our current habits.  The good news is that we can solve all the other global crises at the same time (peak oil, peak water, depleting soil, depleting forests etc.) if we do it right.  The further good news is that our health would improve, and we can focus on living more satisfying lives than just accumulating stuff.
The best news is we would avoid catastrophe and pass a still-rich and wondrous world to our grandchildren.


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